Rendell forecasts '10 flags' for new chums
Adelaide recruiting manager Matt Rendell says draft concessions will make the new clubs unbeatable
The Gold Coast Football Club—currently playing in the TAC Cup— won’t enter the AFL until 2011, but it’s already making its presence felt amongst the recruiting fraternity.
Last year, the AFL increased the minimum draft age by four months.
That resulted in players born between January 1 and April 30, 1992 being inaccessible to the existing clubs in the 2009 NAB AFL Draft.
But the Gold Coast can get exclusive access to 12 picks from this sought-after group.
The rest of those players born before the end of April in 1992 will be eligible for the 2010 draft.
Gold Coast will get also get nine first-round picks in the 2010 NAB AFL Draft, including numbers one, two, three, five, seven and nine.
Western Sydney is expected to receive the same draft concessions, but extended over a two-year period when they enter the competition in 2012.
Rendell said the concessions were a “massive” leg-up for both sides.
“The general public won’t realise how massive [a leg-up] it is until they [the Gold Coast and Western Sydney] start being nigh unbeatable,” Rendell said.
“My estimate is that Western Sydney and Gold Coast will probably win 10 flags in-a-row between in 2015-2025.”
Rendell attended the final day of the NAB AFL U18 Championships at Docklands Stadium on Wednesday.
He described the whole carnival as “disappointing” compared to the previous two years and admitted up to eight of the potential first-round picks fell into the untouchable bottom-age bracket.
“The fluke of this year’s draft is that with those 12 kids—the bottom-aged players that Gold Coast are going to take—an unusually high number of those would’ve been taken in the first round of this draft,” Rendell said.
“The number is probably double compared to the previous two years. It’s just a freak of nature, I suppose, but Gold Coast will get a great base.
“I wouldn’t be trading any of those first-round players at all and I don’t think they will.”
The AFL has integrated new clubs into the competition with much success over the past 20 years.
West Coast won a flag within six years of joining the league.
Adelaide took seven years to claim its first premiership and Port Adelaide eight.
Fremantle is the only club to join AFL ranks recently without a flag.
Rendell said the AFL’s decision to grant Gold Coast unprecedented draft concessions was a reaction to the Brisbane Bears’ tough initiation back in 1987.
“The AFL didn’t want to fall into the same trap as they did with the Bears and I think it’s okay what the AFL has done with the Gold Coast’s concessions,” he said.
“It will make the Gold Coast a very strong team and only they can stuff it up really. Backing it up for another three years with western Sydney coming in is going to hurt the clubs though because we’re talking five years of not getting access to the best kids in the draft.
“Champion Data will tell you the stats…if you’ve got more first-round draft picks in your best team, you’re more than likely going to have that success.”
Rendell predicted that Western Sydney could have as many as 23 first-round draft picks in its side before it even plays a game in the AFL. To put it into perspective, St Kilda currently boasts 17 first-round selections on its list and Adelaide just the seven.
He said the existing clubs needed to take advantage of the premiership window before it slammed shut in 2014.
“There’s going to be some pain and clubs are going to have to be at their smartest and best to compete in five or six years time.”