Will 13 wins be needed to secure eighth spot or will 12 wins and a healthy percentage be enough?
After the weekend’s results, the “12 win” scenario is a possibility and therefore West Coast and even 12th placed Richmond can’t be ruled out with four rounds to play.
Adelaide’s loss to West Coast (11th) means four more wins may be needed to get back into the eight but the Crows now also rely on the results of other teams.
Here is a quick guide to what’s ahead for the seven clubs fighting for three spots:
6. North Melbourne
40 points (ten wins, eight losses) 109.3 per cent
Still not safe in the eight but plays four lower-ranked teams in the remaining weeks.
The run home:
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Startrack Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Blundstone Arena
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
7. Essendon
40 points (ten wins, eight losses) 107.7 per cent
Has four games in Victoria against lower-ranked sides and could push as high as sixth. However, a loss next Friday night to Richmond would leave the Bombers in a fight for 8th.
The run home:
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
8. Collingwood
40 points (ten wins, eight losses) 105.1 per cent
Broke its losing run with Sunday’s to return to the top eight but will need to beat West Coast in Perth next weekend to stay ahead of the queue of challengers.
The run home:
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
9. Gold Coast
40 points (ten wins, eight losses) 99.4 per cent
With their relatively poor percentage, the Suns will almost certainly need to get to 13 wins to play in their first finals series.
The run home:
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Metricon Stadium
10. Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, nine losses) 106.3 per cent
Adelaide’s loss to West Coast hurt and now it may need four wins from four to return to the top eight.
The run home
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
11. West Coast
32 points (eight wins, ten losses) 108.2 per cent
The away win over Adelaide and a healthy percentage keeps the Eagles in the mix but even four wins may not be enough. Huge home game against Collingwood next round.
The run home:
Rd 20: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
12. Richmond
32 points (eight wins, ten losses) 103.1 per cent
Ok, after five consecutive wins we will throw the Tigers into mix. Would need another four wins to be a chance to sneak into top eight.
The run home:
Rd 20: Essendon at MCG
Rd 21: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: St Kilda at MCG
Rd 23: Sydney at ANZ Stadium
