A Champion Data analysis of fixture difficulty reveals Adelaide's destiny is in its own hands.
The draw difficulty rankings are based on each team's points for and against after the first seven rounds of the season.
For example, Geelong, Adelaide's opponent on Friday night, is considered the toughest team to face with an average points differential of +46.8 over seven games. At the other end of the spectrum, Essendon is considered the easiest opponent with an average points differential of -43.4.
The final difficulty rating of a team's draw is the average points differential of its remaining opponents.
So if a team played the Cats and Bombers back-to-back, the difficulty rating of that fortnight would be considered 1.7 (+46.8 + -43.4 /2). Back-to-back matches against form teams Geelong and the Sydney Swans, whose average points differential is 39.7, would have a much higher difficulty ranking of 43.25 (46.8 + 39.7 /2).
The Crows' difficulty rating is +3.1, ranked ninth of all teams for the run home to Round 23. The Club has fought through a difficult start statistically to the season which rated +30.9 by Champion Data, ranked the seventh-hardest start to the season.
Top-four challengers North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs, and the 14th-placed Collingwood have the most difficult finish to the fixture.
Plenty will be learned about the Kangaroos and Bulldogs' premiership credentials as they face the hardest and third-hardest draws, respectively, for the rest of the season. The Magpies are nestled in between with the second-hardest draw.
North Melbourne has nine matches against top-eight opponents and also faces reigning premier Hawthorn twice.
The Hawks and last year's Grand Final opponent West Coast, as well as finals aspirant Greater Western Sydney, are the big winners in a fixture that could go a long way to shaping a wide-open premiership race.
The revised rankings also paint a much different picture after seven rounds because of the dramatic falls of Fremantle and Richmond, and the Giants' drive up the ladder.
Collingwood, fresh off a loss to last year's wooden spooner Carlton, faces seven of the top-eight teams in the run home, including the Western Bulldogs twice.
The Magpies' toughest run will come between rounds 16 and 19 when they face GWS, Adelaide, North Melbourne and West Coast. They finish their season against Hawthorn.
The Eagles, by comparison, face only five top eight times in the last 16 rounds, but must play Adelaide twice in that time as they seek a return to the Grand Final stage.
Three of their seven remaining road trips are against top eight teams.
Geelong was seen as the big winner when the 2016 fixture was released last year, and not much has changed for Chris Scott's men, who have enjoyed the fifth-easiest draw so far.
It will only get slightly more difficult from here as the fancied Cats continue their push for the premiership with the 11th hardest draw.
How difficult has your club's draw been? How hard does it get?
ROUND 1-7 | ROUND 8-23 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Club | Difficulty | Club | Difficulty |
1 | Brisbane Lions | +137.6 | North Melbourne | +43.1 |
2 | Hawthorn | +95.0 | Collingwood | +30.9 |
3 | Fremantle | +77.0 | Western Bulldogs | +18.5 |
4 | St Kilda | +72.1 | Fremantle | +12.9 |
5 | GWS | +59.0 | Sydney Swans | +12.3 |
6 | Essendon | +46.7 | Port Adelaide | +8.5 |
7 | Adelaide | +30.9 | Melbourne | +5.7 |
8 | Richmond | +3.9 | Carlton | +5.0 |
9 | Port Adelaide | -33.0 | Adelaide | +3.1 |
10 | Collingwood | -36.6 | Richmond | +1.1 |
11 | West Coast | -36.6 | Geelong | -1.1 |
12 | North Melbourne | -39.6 | Gold Coast | -1.9 |
13 | Gold Coast | -53.0 | Essendon | -14.1 |
14 | Geelong | -53.4 | Hawthorn | -17.9 |
15 | Sydney Swans | -64.0 | GWS | -21.2 |
16 | Western Bulldogs | -65.0 | West Coast | -25.7 |
17 | Carlton | -70.4 | St Kilda | -28.1 |
18 | Melbourne | -70.6 | Brisbane Lions | -30.9 |