LAST TIME: Adelaide 16.14 (110) d Brisbane Lions 16.9 (105), round 20, 2011, at the Gabba
With three rounds left Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions are heading in opposite directions. The Crows (15-4) are perched nicely in second and chasing the minor premiership, while the Lions (7-12) have lost five of their past six and are fading fast. With its final two matches against Melbourne and Gold Coast, Saturday night appears the only tricky assignment left for Adelaide in the regular season. Much interest will surround power forward Kurt Tippett if he lines up, with the Lions' one of the front-runners for his services in 2013.
THE FOUR POINTS
BRISBANE LIONS
1. Can the Lions stop their worrying slide? Since returning from the bye with wins over the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne, the Lions have fallen into a hole. Five losses from six matches and heavy defeats in the past fortnight against fellow bottom-10 teams Richmond and Carlton have left the season hanging by a thread. Adelaide is the final chance the Lions will get to prove themselves against a top outfit in 2012.
2. Michael Voss still seems to be finding the best role for Daniel Merrett. The big vice-captain has played forward most of the year but has been swung back to his more familiar full-back spot in the past fortnight with Matt Maguire injured. Maguire is expected to return against the Crows, and with Jordan Lisle doing well up front, just where will Merrett go? His big body would be more than useful against either Tippett or Taylor Walker.
3. It's been a common theme in recent weeks, but a few of his midfield teammates need to follow the lead of youngster Jack Redden. While others have shrunk in the face of hidings to West Coast, Richmond and Carlton - by an average of more than 10 goals - the 21-year-old has thrived. Against the Blues he won a team high for disposals (27) and had match highs in both contested possessions (14) and clearances (eight). He needs more mates against the powerhouse Adelaide midfield.
4. The question of who the Lions will send Andrew Raines to tag comes up most weeks, but this one is particularly tricky. Scott Thompson is as good as anyone in the league around stoppages, while Patrick Dangerfield has elevated himself to the elite level this season with a combination of bullocking inside work and devastating outside run and kicking penetration. Whoever Raines gets, he's in for a tough night, with both men in the top six fancies for the Brownlow Medal.?
ADELAIDE
1. Although it is expected to win handsomely, this match at the Gabba rates as Adelaide's last real danger game for the home and away season. Following this weekend the Crows will play Melbourne and Gold Coast and it's close to impossible to see them losing either. Three wins from the remaining games should see the Crows claim this year's minor premiership. But games between these sides have been close in recent times, so Adelaide would want to avoid flirting with their form.
2. With Sam Jacobs in terrific form, the Crows will likely get first look at the ball on Saturday night. Jacobs managed 33 hit-outs last weekend against Fremantle, six more than Jonathon Griffin. Ben Hudson is the best-performing ruckman for the Lions, but he has only averaged 25 hit-outs a game this season. If Jacobs can get on top early, there might be nothing the Lions can do to curb his influence.
3. If the Lions can't win the ball out of the ruck, they'll face a hard time sharking off Jacobs' tapsl, with Adelaide's midfield amongst the best in the league. Dangerfield was simply awesome against Fremantle, and, when added to Thompson, Matthew Wright, Rory Sloane, Bernie Vince and Nathan van Berlo, it's no wonder they're the number one clearance side in the competition. Combined with their likely ruck dominance, the stage is set for a very one-sided affair.
4. After a goalless return to football against Geelong in round 18, Taylor Walker has quickly hit peak form. In the absence of Tippett, he has thrived as Adelaide's main avenue to goal, booting four goals in consecutive games. But it has been the defensive side to his game that has impressed the most in 2012. On his day, Walker is capable of booting double-figure bags of goals and, with the Lions ranked fifth for 'points scored against', perhaps this will be Walker's week.
AFL.com.au prediction: Adelaide by 40 points
The views in this story are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
