With four minor rounds to play, Adelaide still may need another three wins to play in the finals.
It is still possible for the cut-off for the top eight to be 50 premiership points but it is unlikely to guarantee both Geelong and the Crows a finals berth.
Twelve wins (48 points) is unlikely to be enough to earn a top eight spot, which means only Fremantle, West Coast and Hawthorn are certainties at this stage and the Western Bulldogs are one win away from a return to the finals.
The run home
1. Fremantle
64 points (16 wins, two losses) 128.8 per cent
Big derby this weekend, with a win probably securing top spot.
Rd 20: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
2. West Coast
54 points (13 wins, four losses, one draw) 149.5 per cent
After the narrow loss to Hawthorn, the Eagles could drop from second if they lose the WA derby.
Rd 20: Fremantle at the Domain Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Domain Stadium
3. Hawthorn
52 points (13 wins, five losses) 161.5 per cent
Chasing home finals security and the win over the Eagles was another step.
Rd 20: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG
4. Western Bulldogs
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 117.1 per cent
Into top four but needs to keep winning to stay there. One win away from being safe in top eight.
Rd 20: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
5. Sydney Swans
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 112.4 per cent
Top two now looks beyond the Swans and finishing in the top four also will required a string of wins while relying on the Bulldogs dropping at least one game.
Rd 20: Collingwood at the SCG
Rd 21: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at the SCG
6. North Melbourne
44 points (11 wins, seven losses) 109 per cent
The Kangaroos have won five straight but probably need at last two wins from the last four games to stay in the eight.
Rd 20: St Kilda at Blundstone Arena
Rd 21: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
7. Richmond
44 points (11 wins, seven losses) 108.9 per cent
Two more wins should be enough to play in the finals but top four chances have slipped.
Rd 20: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
8. Geelong
42 points (Ten wins, seven losses, one no result) 104.6 per cent
Home win over Sydney was important. Needs a minimum of two more wins – but possibly three – to stay in top eight.
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
9. Adelaide
42 points (Ten wins, seven losses, one no result) 104.5 per cent
Friday night’s win kept in touch with other teams inside the eight. Three more wins would push Crows into eight, two more and it will be tight.
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
10. Greater Western Sydney
40 points (Ten wins, eight losses) 102.4 per cent
A big couple of weeks ahead for the Giants. Two more wins is unlikely to be enough, probably needs three.
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
11. Collingwood
36 points (Nine wins, nine losses) 111.8 per cent
A win after six losses in a row keeps the Pies in the mix, but they will need to beat some top eight sides in next three weeks.
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
12. Port Adelaide
32 points (Eight wins, ten losses) 98.7 per cent
If other teams above keep losing, winning four more games is the only way for the Power to have any hope of playing in the finals.
Rd 20: GWS at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval
Who's going to make it? Forecast the final eight with the 2015 ladder predictor
