IN A DRAMATIC prediction for the future of football, Adelaide list manager David Noble says he expects contracts to lengthen and the League's salary cap to double within seven years.
Noble said if the value of the AFL's media rights (a new deal to be settled ahead of the 2017 season) continued on its upward trend the game could stand to make close to $2 billion from the next Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) – and players would expect a sizeable slice of the pie.
The current deal, struck before the 2012 season, saw every game of football broadcast live and was worth a record $1.25 billion.
But Noble said the increasing popularity and value of Friday night games and the digital media boom would likely help boost that figure towards $2 billion.
"The CBA shift in the rights at the moment is going to be interesting, I reckon the cap (currently $9.63 million) is going to double in the next seven years – that's my gut feel," Noble said.
"If the carve-up of the next CBA media rights is heading the way we think it's going to head, the players are going to ask for more and I think the cap's going to continue to shift in an upward trend pretty quickly.
"The value is just going to continue to increase, so they (the AFL) might end up with $1.8 billion out of the next deal."
And Noble said that should the AFL follow the trend of American baseball, players will be signed to longer, more expensive contracts.
While he believed the astronomical nine-year, $10 million deal that saw Lance Franklin cross from Hawthorn to the Sydney Swans would remain a rarity, he said fans should get used to their favourites signing contracts of at least five years.
"Talking to baseball guys, they say the trend would be that your longer-term contracts will push out, so you'll get more of the five, six, seven [year contracts]," he said.
"I'm not sure you'll get that with some of the free agents because ... if you have a long-term contract with a free agent, that money stays in your cap – you can't pay him out.
"It's very strategic."
Noble and coach Brenton Sanderosn meet once a month to talk list management, planning as many as five years ahead.
As well as looking at which opposition players might become available, Sanderson said he and Noble tried to identify future holes in the club's list when today's stars, currently at or near their peak, drew time on their careers.
"We're actually looking as far ahead as 2017 and I don't think I've got a contract in 2017 but we're still doing it," Sanderson said.
"We're looking at each year, free agents that are coming out, players coming out of contract, we're looking at holes in our squad [for when]Richard Douglas retires, when guys in the 25, 26, 27-year age bracket; we're looking at when those guys potentially pull the pin on their careers.
"We're really advanced, we spend a lot of time on that."