SUMMARY
On paper, this looks like the easiest of the four opening finals to predict with Adelaide expected to comfortably account for an out-of-sorts North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night. But finals can often add another element, particularly all-or-nothing Elimination Finals. The Crows cost themselves a top-two berth and a double chance in the finals with a shock 29-point loss to West Coast in Round 23. Apart from that slip-up, they’ve been in great form on their way to a 16-6 record this season. In contrast, the Kangaroos have lost nine of their past 11 games to limp into the finals with the distraction of the four delisted veterans looming large.
WHERE AND WHEN: Adelaide Oval, Saturday September 10, 7.10pm ACST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round One: North Melbourne 16.11 (107) d Adelaide 14.13 (97) at Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne's Round One hoodoo looked set to continue when the Crows led by 24 points early in the second half. But three third-quarter goals to evergreen Brent Harvey sparked the Kangaroos to a 10 goals to five second half and their first opening round victory since 2009.
Round 14: Adelaide 12.28 (100) d North Melbourne 10.7 (67) at Adelaide Oval
The Crows won their fifth straight game despite their most inaccurate kicking performance in almost 23 years. The Kangaroos led by four points at half-time before the Crows ran away with the contest. Matt Crouch and Rory Sloane starred for the hosts against an undermanned Kangaroos side coming off a six-day break.
LAST FIVE TIMES
R14, 2016, Adelaide Crows 12.28 (100) d North Melbourne 10.7 (67) at Adelaide Oval
R1, 2016, North Melbourne 16.11 (107) d Adelaide Crows 14.13 (97) at Etihad Stadium
R1, 2015, Adelaide Crows 21.14 (140) d North Melbourne 9.9 (63) at Adelaide Oval
R22, 2014, North Melbourne 14.17 (101) d Adelaide Crows 13.16 (94) at Blundstone Arena
R13, 2014, Adelaide Crows 16.13 (109) d North Melbourne 10.13 (73) at Adelaide Oval
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Adelaide
1. If the Kangaroos close down the corridor as the Eagles did, the Crows will kick long to key forwards Josh Jenkins and Taylor Walker down the wings and back them in to take contested marks.
2. Rory Laird will be given a licence to attack from the half-back line to set up run and carry for the Crows going forward.
3. Expect to see Kyle Hartigan and Jenkins will help out Sam Jacobs as the third-man in ruck duels with star big man Todd Goldstein, who was dominant in the Kangaroos' round one victory.
North Melbourne
1. Luke McDonald played on Tom Lynch in Round One and kept the hard-running Crows tall largely in check.
2. In the absence of main tagger Ben Jacobs, Trent Dumont or Sam Gibson could run with Rory Sloane if Brad Scott decides to tag the Crows star.
3. Sending Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington deep forward has been a ploy used sparingly by Brad Scott, but both midfielders can take a mark and might be an avenue to goal if the Roos struggle to hit the scoreboard.
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Crows set a Club record for behinds in a match kicking 12.28 when they beat the Kangaroos in round 14. Matt Crouch starred with 32 possessions and two goals.
2. Adelaide finished as the highest-scoring side in the home and away season averaging 113 points per game. North Melbourne finished eighth, with 89 points per game.
3. The Crows and Kangaroos clash for the 41st time. Adelaide holds a narrow advantage, winning 21 games to 19. Since 2013, Adelaide has won five of seven contests.
4. Adelaide is the top-ranked centre clearance side in 2016 averaging 14.3 per game, while North Melbourne is ranked sixth with 13.1 per game.
5. This is only the second time the two teams have met in the finals after the 1998 Grand Final, which the Crows won. North Melbourne has won its last two Elimination Finals.
6. Adelaide's All Australian defender Daniel Talia has improved 144 places in the Schick AFL Player Ratings this year. Starting the year ranked 294th in the League, Talia is now ranked 150th overall.
WHAT THE COACHES SAY
Don Pyke: "Our game style is not built purely on our ball movement. It's built on our ability to win our share of the contests, whether that's aerial or on the ground. That's going to become more prevalent in finals because that's the nature of the games we play."
Brad Scott: "We've been in this exact position before. We've won finals from sixth and eighth position and we've won finals interstate, so there's a quiet level of comfort within our group that we can reproduce our best footy."
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…
Scott Thompson (Adelaide): A loss for the Crows this weekend would leave the 33-year-old in some uncertainty with the midfielder still unsigned for next season. The 305-game veteran has produced some vintage performances this year, but has also struggled at other times including against West Coast in Round 23, but he did have plenty of mates who were similarly quiet. Expect the strong-build onballer to respond on Saturday night.
Drew Petrie (North Melbourne): The enormity of being told this will be his final season at Arden Street hit the veteran at the worst possible time as the Roos went down to Greater Western Sydney in Round 23 and Petrie had just four touches. The coach looks set to stick by him for the Elimination Final and, if his 316th game proves to be his last, Petrie will want to go out on a much better note.
AFL.COM.AU PREDICTION: Adelaide by 32 points
